2019 the Good , the Bad or the Ugly?

Tuesday, January 15, 2019 Written by Emmanuelle in News

The Canadian housing market reflected a lot of restraints and not much growth in 2018. Even so, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic as also said in the Financial Post Murtaza Haider, an associate professor at Ryerson University and Stephen Moranis a real estate industry veteran.
 
There were a number of policy changes that took place in 2018, all of which likely had some effect on the real estate sector in Canada:

  • Some point to the mortgage stress test as having had a major impact;
  • Toronto real estate was slower in 2018 compared to both 2017 and 2016. This slowdown was likely a result of the new taxes imposed on foreign homebuyers in the province.
  • The CMHC believes that the urban housing markets throughout Ontario will recover from a slump in 2018, which will be caused mainly by predicted job growth and in-migration. 

According to CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association), December 17, 2018,

  • the national average price is forecast to rebound by 1.7% to $496,800 in 2019
  • For Ontario 3.3% to 588,900$. 

“It is important to note that market conditions were improved in the second half of the year, both from a sales and pricing standpoint.” – Garry Bhaura, 2018/2019 TREB President.

Let us also note that in many neighbourhoods, despite fewer sales from a historic perspective, some buyers still struggled to find a home that meets their needs. The result was a resumption of a moderate year-over-year pace of home price growth in the second half of the year. – Jason Mercer, Director, Market Analysis, TREB.

A few numbers: December 2018 Year-Over-Year Per cent change in the MLS HPI(home Price Index)

In Halton Region:

  • Single-Family detached + 3.01%
  • Single Family Attached +3.88%
  • Townhouse+3.24%
  • Apartment +0.87%

In Peel Region:

  • Single-Family detached +2.23%
  • Single Family Attached +3.56%
  • Townhouse 2.50%
  • Apartment +10.79%

What a challenging thing to forecast every January what is going to happen this year!
Last year here were my predictions on 2018:
http://www.emmanuellemeyer.ca/blog/2018/stress-tests-what-impact-for-our-housing-market-in-2018-
 
I believe as last year that we will keep stable, for many reasons as in-migration, unemployment rate, and safety on a world perspective.

The supply is not there and as it already started in mid-2018 prices have started going up at a slow pace as buyers are adapting to new mortgage rules but the trend is there.
 

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